George FRIEDMAN: İkinci Osmanlı Dönemi Geliyor Mu?

George Friedman, bu yüzyılın sonlarında Meksika, Türkiye, Polonya ve Japonya\’ nın çok daha güçleneceklerini öngörüyor:

Despite the snowy morning, about a hundred people, mostly academics, diplomats, businessmen, members of think-tanks and NGOs, gathered at the Carnegie Council\’s regular lectures series to listen to George FRIEDMAN\’s \”The Next 100 years: A Forecast for the 21st Century\”.

Unlike his bearded-picture that appears in the media, Mr. FRIEDMAN was clean shaven. At the beginning of his speech, he poked a bit of fun at what people might think of his own geopolitical forecast. But he was confident and dauntless.

His latest book on the topic has been covered by many media outlets, especially in the Turkish media. He gave examples from the 19th century till now about how power around the world can shift despite common expectations. He emphasized the fact that in a few decades, no one should be surprised if the world has a different power structure than today.

What Could It Be?

\”You can laugh\”, said Mr. FRIEDMAN \”but I believe these following countries will be essential in the world power shift in coming decades: Japan in Asia, Turkey in the Middle East, Poland in Europe, and Mexico in the Americas\”. He expressed that, despite what most people think, he was not impressed by China as the possible next super power. \”It is an extension of the US economy; if the US declines, China would, too. But Japan has a fundamentally strong economy as well as an army that is more powerful than the British, although after World War II their military has been limited constitutionally. Imagine what can happen if they amend it\”.

In the West, Mr. Friedman claimed that if Russia could not get back to its full power, then Poland would be the key country between Russia and the Europeans. Likewise in the Americas, he said that Mexico, considering its economic and population growth, may challenge the US hegemony.

What About Turkey?

As an internationally recognized strategist, Mr. FRIEDMAN claimed that Turkey will also be growing power in coming decades. \”Despite the internal problems now, Turkey still has a strong economy with an excellent army\” said Friedman arguing that, with the active foreign policy of past a few years, \”the country is getting lots of influence on Balkans, Caucuses, Iraq, and in the Middle East. Remember, this will not be new for Turkey. They used to be a superpower of the world before\”.

At the end, Friedman debated the US position, too. He said \”We have been powerful not because we were smarter or wiser than others but simply we were geographically in the right place at the right time. I don\’t see any solution now to the \’we can do whatever we want\’ policies but simply to \’grow up\’ anymore\”.

Although he reminded me of W. BUSH by some of his facial gestures from winking his eyes to the ironic smile on his lips, the way he analyzed and forecast the future world definitely distinguished him from his Texan fellow.

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